Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in South Sudan

When it comes to public health these days, COVID-19 is of serious concern and considered as the supreme crisis of the present era. A surge in the number patients testing positive for COVID-19 has created a lot of stress and frustration on governing bodies worldwide and they are finding it difficult to tackle the situation. In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 case volumes in South Sudan. This study is based on daily new cases of COVID-19 in South Sudan for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model reveal that the model is stable in forecasting COVID-19 cases in South Sudan. It is projected that daily COVID-19 cases in South Sudan are likely to decline to zero cases per day around early April 2021. The government of South Sudan should continue to ensure that there is compliance to control and preventive COVID-19 measures such as social distancing, quarantine, isolation, face-mask wearing and so on. There is also need to embrace the vaccination programme in the country.

Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Trinidad & Tobago

The need for forecasting the future trend of COVID-19 is at its highest levels now. Forecasting the disease progression will lessen the burden of health workers in terms of managing the pandemic. Trinidad & Tobago, just like any other resource-limited country, is in need of accurate forecasts of the COVID-19 cases, in order to be “on top” of the virus. In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 cases in the country. This study is based on monthly new cases of COVID-19 in Trinidad and Tobago for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of our model indicate that the model is stable and acceptable for predicting daily new COVID-19 cases in Trinidad & Tobago. It is projected that daily COVID-19 cases in Trinidad and Tobago are likely to remain high over the out-of-sample period. Relevant authorities, especially the ministry responsible for public health;have a big role to play in terms of controlling the further spread of the virus. There is need for continued implementation of control and prevention strategies in the country, especially the vaccinations.

Forecasting Covid-19 Deaths in Ukraine

COVID-19 has already brought unprecedented challenges for public health and resulted in huge numbers of cases and deaths across the globe. In this study, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 deaths in Ukraine. This study is based on daily COVID-19 deaths in Ukraine for the period 1 January 2020 – 20 April 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 21 April – 31 August 2021.The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is quite stable. It is projected that daily COVID-19 deaths in Ukraine are likely to remain high over the out-of-sample period. Amongst other suggested policy directions, there is need for the government of Ukraine to ensure adherence to safety guidelines while continuing to create awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic as well as scaling up vaccinations.

Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Saint Lucia

Circulating globally, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic continues to cause devastating mortality and is indeed a great threat to global public health. In this research paper, the ANN model was applied to analyze daily COVID-19 cases in Saint Lucia. This study is based on daily new cases of COVID-19 in Saint Lucia for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the model reveal that the model is quite stable. The results of the study reveal that daily COVID-19 cases in Saint Lucia are likely to surge significantly until they reach an equilibrium case volume of approximately 408 cases per day over the out-of-sample period. The relevant authorities should ensure the continued compliance to control and preventive COVID-19 measures such as social distancing, quarantine, isolation, face-mask wearing and so on, alongside vaccinations.

Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Uzbekistan

COVID-19 continues to significantly threaten human lives and economies around the globe. In this study, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 cases in Uzbekistan. This study is based on monthly new cases of COVID-19 in Uzbekistan for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model reveal that the model is stable in forecasting COVID-19 cases in Uzbekistan. It is projected that daily COVID-19 cases in Uzbekistan are likely to decline significantly over the out-of-sample period. The government should ensure the continued compliance to control and preventive COVID-19 measures such as social distancing, quarantine, isolation, face-mask wearing and so on, as well as vaccinations, in consistency with WHO guidelines on COVID-19 mitigation strategies.

Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Sao Tome

The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach was applied in this piece of work, to analyze COVID-19 daily cases in Sao Tome. This study is based on monthly new cases of COVID-19 in Sao Tome for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation statistics (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is adequate. The predictions show that daily COVID-19 cases in Sao Tome are generally likely to hover around an equilibrium case volume of about 24 cases per day over the out-of-sample period. However, the government of Sao Tome should ensure the continued compliance to control and preventive COVID-19 measures such as social distancing, quarantine, isolation, face-mask wearing as well as vaccinations.

Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in South Korea

In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to forecast the future trend of COVID case volumes in South Korea. This study is based on daily new cases of COVID-19 in South Korea for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is very stable and quite acceptable in forecasting COVID-19 infections in South Korea. The study suggests that the number of daily new COVID-19 cases is likely to follow a downwards trend over the out-of sample period. The South Korean government is encouraged to continue enforcing WHO guidelines on the prevention and control of the pandemic, including vaccinations and also people in the country are advised to continue behaving in a responsible manner with regards to face-mask wearing and following all sanitary rules put forward by WHO.

Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Haiti

In this study, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 new cases in Haiti. The employed data covers the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 26 March – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is quite stable. The results of the study indicate that daily COVID-19 cases in Haiti are likely to increase significantly over the out-of-sample period. Amongst other suggested policy directions, there is need for the government of Haiti to ensure adherence to safety guidelines while continuing to create awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic.

Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Antigua and Barbuda

Due to the rapid spread of COVID-19 around the globe, governments continue to be compelled to swiftly find solutions to reduce infections rates and keep mortality as low as possible. In the current study, the ANN approach was applied to analyze daily COVID-19 cases in Antigua and Barbuda. This study is based on daily new cases of COVID-19 in Antigua Barbuda for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model show us that the model is stable and therefore adequate. The results of the study show that daily COVID-19 cases in Antigua and Barbuda are likely to remain low over the out-of-sample period. The government of Antigua and Barbuda should ensure the continued compliance to control and preventive COVID-19 measures such as social distancing, quarantine, isolation, face-mask wearing and so on, in line with WHO stipulated guidelines.

Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Barbados

The crisis of COVID-19 is growing and has devastating implications for many countries around the world. In this research article, the ANN technique was applied to analyze daily COVID-19 cases based on new cases of COVID-19 in Barbados for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the employed model suggest that the model is stable in forecasting COVID-19 cases in Barbados. The results of the study imply that that daily COVID-19 cases in Barbados are likely to remain relatively low over the out-of-sample period. The government should continue to implement strong control and preventive measures in order to save lives despite the projected relatively low COVID-19 case volumes.

Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Albania

As COVID-19 rages throughout the globe, reliable modeling and forecasting of the dynamics thereof is critical. In this research work, the ANN technique was applied to forecast daily COVID-19 cases in Albania. This study is based on daily new cases of COVID-19 in Albania for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the employed model suggest that the model is stable. It is projected that daily COVID-19 cases in Albania are likely to remain very high over the out-of-sample period. We strongly recommend that the government of Albania should continue to ensure vaccine uptake and strict adherence to lock-down measures while creating awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic.

Forecasting Covid-19 Deaths in Nepal

In this study, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 deaths in Nepal. The employed data covers the period 1 January 2020 to 20 April 2021 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 21 April 2021 to 31 August 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is quite stable. The results of the study indicate that daily COVID-19 deaths in Nepal are likely to remain low over the out-of-sample period. Therefore there is need for the government of Nepal to ensure adherence to safety guidelines while continuing to create awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic and scale up COVID-19 vaccination.

Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Slovenia

The need for forecasting the future pattern of COVID-19 is at its highest levels now. Predicting the disease progression will lessen the burden of health workers in terms of managing the pandemic. Slovenia, just like any other resource-limited country, is in need of accurate forecasts of the COVID-19 cases, in order to be “on top” of the virus. In this research paper, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 cases in the country. This study is based on daily new cases of COVID-19 in Slovenia for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of our model indicate that the model is stable and acceptable for predicting daily new COVID-19 cases in Slovenia. It is projected the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to disappear in the country around mid-April 2021.There is, however, the need for continued implementation of control and prevention strategies in the country, especially the vaccinations. The public is also urged to exercise caution all the time and strictly adhere to sanitary rules established by WHO, in order to save lives.

Forecasting Covid-19 Deaths in Bolivia

In this study, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 deaths in Bolivia. The employed data covers the period 1 January 2020 to 20 April 2021 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 21 April 2021 to 31 August 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is quite stable. The results of the study indicate that daily COVID-19 deaths in Bolivia are likely to rise to almost 2000 deaths per day over the out-of-sample period. Therefore there is need for the government of Bolivia to ensure adherence to safety guidelines while continuing to create awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic and speed up COVID-19 vaccination in order herd immunity.

Forecasting Covid-19 Deaths in Ghana

The surging COVID-19 infections and deaths in some parts of the world like India and Brazil is an issue of concern in the COVID-19 response (Shet et al, 2020;Sun et al, 2020). New strains of the corona virus, SARS-COV2 have been seen to be more transmissible. The most worrisome issue is the death of young and economically productive people due to the new variants in countries like Brazil. Several previous studies have shown that the significant predictors of COVID-19 mortality are old age, hypertension and diabetes (Jordan et al, 2020;Wu et al, 2020;Becchetti &Salustvi, 2020;Ma et al, 2020;Hasan & Haque, 2020). Ghana reported the first 2 cases of COVID-19 on the 12th March 2020. By 15th of April 2020 the country had reported 641 positive cases of COVID-19 (WHO, 2020). The government managed the situation by imposing lockdowns, quarantine, isolation, contact tracing, hygiene practices, social distancing and treatment of COVID-19 cases (Ghana emergency, 2020;Zurek, 2020). In this study we propose to apply a machine learning algorithm to predict daily COVID-19 deaths in Ghana. The findings of this piece of work are envisioned to reveal the future trends of COVID-19 mortality in the country and stimulate an appropriate early response to the epidemic.

Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Zambia

In this work, the ANN approach was employed to analyze COVID-19 case volumes in Zambia. This study is based on daily new cases of COVID-19 in Zambia for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the model indicate that it is stable. It is projected that the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to subside significantly around mid-April 2021. The Zambian government ought to ensure the continued compliance to COVID-19 mitigation measures such as social distancing, quarantine, isolation, as well as face-mask wearing, including vaccinations amongst other measures.

Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Syria

In this research paper, the ANN model was applied to forecast COVID-19 confirmed cases in Syria. This study is based on monthly new cases of COVID-19 in the country for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is stable and adequate in forecasting daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Syria. The results of the study indicate that daily COVID-19 cases in Syria are likely to remain high, although characterized by recurrent downward trends over the out-of-sample period. We encourage relevant authorities to continue to implement preventive and control measures such as wearing of masks, banning of unnecessary travel, social distancing, and proper washing of hands and vaccinations.

Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Cambodia

In this study, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 new cases in Cambodia. The employed data covers the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 26 March – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is quite stable. The results of the study indicate that COVID-19 cases are likely to range between 0 and 200 cases over the out-of-sample period. Amongst other suggested policy directions, there is need for the government of Cambodia to ensure adherence to safety guidelines while continuing to create awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic.

Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Sierra Leone

Understanding the pattern of COVID-19 is important for purposes of formulating and implementing appropriate precautionary measures to mitigate the spread of the epidemic. In this study, the ANN approach was applied to analyze daily COVID-19 cases in Sierra Leone. This study is based on monthly new cases of COVID-19 in Sierra Leone for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the model used in this study indicate that the model is stable in forecasting daily COVID-19 cases in the country. It is projected that daily COVID-19 cases in Sierra Leone are likely to slightly increase and hover around a daily equilibrium of 26 cases over the bulk of the out-of-sample period. The government of Sierra Leone should continue to enforce adherence to the WHO sanitary rules and guidelines in order to suppress any further increase in the number of cases. In this regard, we also encourage the government to upscale the vaccination programme in the country.

Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Mongolia

In this study, the ANN approach was applied to analyze COVID-19 new cases in Mongolia. The employed data covers the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021 and the out-of-sample period ranges over the period 26 March – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is quite stable. The results of the study indicate that daily COVID-19 cases in Mongolia are likely to remain very high over the out-of-sample period. Amongst other suggested policy directions, there is need for the government of Mongolia to ensure adherence to safety guidelines while continuing to create awareness about the COVID-19 pandemic.